Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles Best Bet – 9/4/2024

• Date: September 4, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox
  • Albert Suarez - Orioles

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 4, 2024, they find themselves deep in a disappointing season, boasting a 31-109 record. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles are enjoying a stellar year with an 81-59 record, solidly positioned as one of the dominant teams in the American League. In the previous game of this series, the Orioles showcased their strength, winning decisively, and they are eager to continue that momentum today.

The matchup features Baltimore’s Albert Suarez on the mound, who is striving to improve on his 7-4 record and impressive 3.14 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 234th best starting pitcher in MLB, the projections indicate that he can still limit the White Sox offense, which currently ranks as the 30th best in the league. With the White Sox struggling to generate power, hitting just 90 home runs this season, Suarez’s high-flyball tendency may play into his favor today.

On the other side, the White Sox will start Jonathan Cannon, who carries a 2-9 record and a 4.70 ERA. Cannon’s season has been marred by inconsistency, and his projections suggest he will have difficulties against a potent Orioles lineup that is 1st in MLB in home runs and 4th in overall offensive performance. Baltimore’s Anthony Santander has been on fire, leading the team as their best hitter over the last week with a .407 batting average and 1.114 OPS.

With a current moneyline of -310 favoring the Orioles, the betting landscape reflects their strong positioning in this matchup. Look for Baltimore to build on their recent success and take advantage of the struggling Chicago squad.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Cannon to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (7th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Nicky Lopez is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Lenyn Sosa has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Given the 1.65 difference between Albert Suarez's 3.14 ERA and his 4.79 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in MLB this year and figures to perform worse in the future.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Cedric Mullins II's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 86.6-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 78.8-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Baltimore Orioles projected lineup grades out as the 3rd-strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 76 of their last 139 games (+20.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• Andrew Benintendi has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+8.70 Units / 97% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.89 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.56

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