Chicago White Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks Pick For 6/15/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: June 15, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - White Sox
  • Tommy Henry - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to host the Chicago White Sox on June 15, 2024, at Chase Field in the second game of their series. The Diamondbacks won the first game decisively, 7-1, showcasing their offensive prowess and further highlighting the struggles of the White Sox. Coming into this matchup, the D-Backs hold a 34-36 record, indicative of an average season, while the White Sox are languishing at 18-53, having a dismal year.

Tommy Henry will take the mound for Arizona. While his season stats don't inspire much confidence—sporting a 5.58 ERA and ranking as the 282nd best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings—there's a silver lining. His 4.64 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could improve going forward. Henry is projected to allow 2.5 earned runs and strike out 5.3 batters in approximately 5.4 innings.

On the flip side, the White Sox will counter with Erick Fedde, who has had a solid season with a 3.10 ERA and a 4-1 record in 14 starts. However, his 3.70 SIERA indicates he might have been fortunate so far and could regress. Fedde is expected to allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.5 innings, with a below-average strikeout projection of 4.9.

Offensively, the D-Backs have the edge, ranking 9th in MLB in overall offense and 8th in team batting average. Their power is middling, as they sit 15th in home runs. Ketel Marte has been a standout, posting a .279 average with 14 home runs and an .853 OPS. On the other hand, the White Sox offense has been abysmal, ranking last in both overall offense and team batting average. Paul DeJong has been a lone bright spot, especially in the past week with a .296 average and three home runs.

The Diamondbacks' bullpen ranks 18th, while the White Sox's bullpen struggles at 27th. Given the disparity in team performance and current form, the D-Backs are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, translating to an implied win probability of 58%. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, aligns with this, giving Arizona a projected win probability of 62%.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

In his previous GS, Erick Fedde was in good form and gave up 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Paul DeJong has a ton of pop (84th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (30.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Tommy Henry has a pitch-to-contact profile (9th percentile K%) — great news for DeJong.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Chicago White Sox have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Martin Maldonado, Luis Robert, Paul DeJong, Korey Lee).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Corbin Carroll's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 30.05 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.51 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The 6.4% Barrel% of the Arizona Diamondbacks makes them the #28 squad in the game since the start of last season by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.25 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+8.60 Units / 31% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+7.00 Units / 54% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.99 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.83

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