Chicago White Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bet – 6/16/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Drew Thorpe - White Sox
  • Jordan Montgomery - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks (34-37) prepare to face the Chicago White Sox (19-53) on June 16, 2024, at Chase Field, both teams are looking to bounce back from a roller-coaster series. The D-Backs, having a below-average season, are currently not in playoff contention, while the White Sox are enduring a dreadful year, sitting at the bottom of the league standings.

Coming off a surprising 9-2 loss on June 15, Arizona will aim to rebound against a White Sox team that defied the odds as a heavy underdog in the previous game. Despite the D-Backs being favored with a Moneyline of -165 and an implied win probability of 61%, Chicago managed to triumph with a +150 Moneyline.

Arizona's Jordan Montgomery will take the mound, bringing a 4-4 record and a concerning 6.58 ERA over nine starts this season. Although Montgomery's ERA is troubling, his 4.63 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and may perform better moving forward. Montgomery is projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, striking out 5.1 batters, and giving up 6.2 hits and 1.3 walks—indicating some areas of concern for his control and contact.

On the other side, Drew Thorpe will start for the White Sox. Thorpe, with an excellent 1.80 ERA in his lone start this year, has been lucky with a 4.15 xFIP indicating potential regression. Projections have him pitching 5.1 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, striking out 3.8 batters, and giving up 5.4 hits and 1.7 walks.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks hold the edge. Arizona's lineup, ranked 9th in MLB, is spearheaded by Ketel Marte, who boasts a .282 batting average and .855 OPS. Meanwhile, Jake McCarthy has been hot, hitting .357 with a 1.080 OPS over the last week. Conversely, Chicago's offense ranks last in MLB, with Paul DeJong's .286 average and .976 OPS over the past week being a rare bright spot.

Both bullpens have struggled, with the D-Backs ranked 23rd and the White Sox 25th in advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, Arizona's pitching depth might hold the slight advantage.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Diamondbacks are favored with a projected win probability of 60%, while the White Sox sit at 40%. With Arizona looking to avenge yesterday's upset and Montgomery potentially due for positive regression, the D-Backs appear poised to reclaim momentum in this interleague matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Andrew Benintendi is likely to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Chicago White Sox have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Korey Lee, Luis Robert, Paul DeJong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Jordan Montgomery's 91.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.5-mph drop off from last season's 92.6-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .296 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .399 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen projects as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.55 Units / 61% ROI)
• Joc Pederson has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games at home (+7.10 Units / 59% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.29 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.02

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.