Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Pick – 6/4/2025

As the Chicago Cubs visit Nationals Park on June 4, 2025, they come off an impressive performance, having won their previous matchup against the Washington Nationals 8-3. The Cubs, sitting atop the National League standings with a 38-22 record, are having a great season, while the Nationals struggle at 28-32, reflecting a below-average campaign.

In this matchup, the Cubs will send Matthew Boyd to the mound, who has had a solid season with a 5-2 record and a 3.08 ERA. While Boyd ranks as the 40th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, he is projected to allow 2.3 earned runs today, which is a favorable indicator against a Nationals offense that ranks 15th overall. However, Boyd's 3.75 xFIP suggests he may not maintain his current level of performance.

On the other side, MacKenzie Gore will take the hill for Washington. Despite a challenging season reflected in his 2-5 record, Gore boasts a solid 3.16 ERA and ranks 36th among starting pitchers. He projects to strike out 6.0 batters today, but his tendency to allow 5.0 hits and 2.0 walks could be problematic against a powerful Cubs lineup that ranks 3rd in overall offense and 2nd in batting average.

With the Cubs' high-flying offense facing Gore's flyball tendencies, they could capitalize on turning those flyballs into home runs. The projections indicate a competitive game total of 8.5 runs, suggesting a potential for high-scoring action. The Nationals, however, are underdogs with a moneyline of +115, indicating they could offer value for bettors looking for an upset.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Matthew Boyd was in good form in his last outing and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Justin Turner has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The underlying talent of the Chicago Cubs projected offense today (.322 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .338 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, MacKenzie Gore has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 7.0 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

James Wood has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 100.4-mph average to last season's 96.6-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Washington Nationals bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 42 games (+6.13 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 52 games (+11.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• James Wood has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.45 Units / 53% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.52, Washington Nationals 4.12

• Date: June 4, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Boyd - Cubs
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.