Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction & Picks 7/14/2024

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: July 14, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs are set to face off on July 14, 2024, in what will be the fourth game of their series at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals, who boast a 50-45 record, are having an above-average season and sit higher in the National League Central standings compared to the Cubs, who are 46-51 and struggling through a below-average season. The Cardinals are projected to start Miles Mikolas, while the Cubs will counter with Jameson Taillon.

Mikolas, a right-handed pitcher, sports a 7-7 record with a 4.88 ERA this season. However, his 4.11 xFIP, per THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests he's been unlucky and might perform better moving forward. Mikolas has been reliable in limiting walks (4.1 BB%), which could neutralize the Cubs' patience at the plate, as they rank 5th in MLB in drawing walks. On the flip side, Mikolas is not without his flaws, as he projects to allow 6.1 hits and strike out just 4.0 batters over an average 5.6 innings.

Taillon, another righty, has a more impressive 6-4 record with a stellar 2.99 ERA. However, his 4.18 xFIP indicates he might regress. He is a high-flyball pitcher, which may play to his favor against a Cardinals offense that has struggled with power, ranking 25th in team home runs. Taillon's projections suggest he will allow 5.7 hits and strike out 3.8 batters over 5.3 innings, numbers that don’t differ drastically from Mikolas’s.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 21st overall, with their lineup showing a lack of consistent power and run production. However, Alec Burleson has been a bright spot, hitting .370 with a 1.135 OPS over the last week. On the Cubs' side, David Bote has been sensational lately, boasting a .667 batting average and a 1.667 OPS in his last six games.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Cardinals have a significant edge, ranking 5th compared to the Cubs' 28th in MLB. This disparity could be pivotal in a close game. Betting markets suggest a tight contest, with the Cardinals' moneyline set at -135, implying a 55% chance of winning, while the Cubs are at +115, translating to a 45% win probability.

With both teams eyeing divisional supremacy, this matchup serves as a crucial game for the standings in the National League Central. Expect a tightly contested battle, where bullpen performance and timely hitting could sway the outcome.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon has recorded 17.5 outs per outing this year, placing in the 84th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Pete Crow-Armstrong's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 86.2-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 79.8-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas's curveball usage has decreased by 7.6% from last year to this one (20% to 12.4%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

In terms of his home runs, Alec Burleson has been lucky this year. His 27.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.10 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 away games (+7.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 22 games (+17.40 Units / 79% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.65 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.83

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