Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/24/2024

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 24, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League Central matchup, the St. Louis Cardinals will take on the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium on May 24, 2024. The Cardinals will be hosting the game as the home team while the Cubs will be the away team.

The Cardinals have had a below-average season so far, with a record of 23-26. Meanwhile, the Cubs have been performing above average with a record of 27-24. This game is crucial for both teams as they look to improve their standing in the division.

The Cardinals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Miles Mikolas, who has had a tough season with a 3-5 win/loss record and a high ERA of 5.77. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On the other side, the Cubs are projected to start left-handed pitcher Shota Imanaga, who has been impressive with a 5-0 record and an excellent ERA of 0.84.

The Cardinals' offense ranks 23rd in MLB this season, while the Cubs' offense ranks 19th. However, the Cardinals have a higher team batting average, ranking 7th in the league, while the Cubs have a stronger stolen bases game, ranking 6th. It will be interesting to see how these offensive strengths and weaknesses impact the game.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Cardinals have a win probability of 51%, slightly higher than their implied win probability of 44%. THE BAT X projects this as a close game, but it suggests there may be value in betting on the Cardinals as they have a higher win probability than the betting market suggests.

Both teams will be looking to bounce back from their last games. The Cardinals won their previous game against the Orioles with a score of 5-4, while the Cubs lost to the Braves with a score of 3-0. It's worth noting that the Cardinals had a higher implied win probability in their last game, showing that they were expected to perform well against a tough opponent.

The Cardinals' bullpen is ranked 4th best in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Cubs' bullpen ranks 13th. This could play a significant role in determining the outcome of the game, as a strong bullpen can provide crucial support to the starting pitcher.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Shota Imanaga has tallied 17.9 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 89th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

As it relates to his batting average, Christopher Morel has been unlucky this year. His .205 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .286.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas has relied on his slider 5% more often this season (29.3%) than he did last season (24.3%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Brendan Donovan has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen projects as the 5th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+12.90 Units / 64% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.41 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.23

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