Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 6/25/2025

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on June 25, 2025, fans can expect a thrilling matchup between two competitive teams in the National League Central. The Cubs enter this game with a solid record of 46-33, while the Cardinals trail closely with a 44-36 record. Both teams are looking to gain an edge in what is shaping up to be a closely contested series.

St. Louis will rely on Erick Fedde, who, despite being ranked 154th among starting pitchers in MLB, is projected to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs. This performance might not inspire confidence, especially given that he has struggled with allowing an average of 5.7 hits and 1.8 walks per outing, which is concerning for the Cardinals.

On the other side of the mound, Chicago's Matthew Boyd has been a standout, ranked 47th among his peers. He is projected to also pitch 5.4 innings but with a more favorable outlook, allowing an average of just 2.5 earned runs. While he projects to give up a similar number of hits (5.2), his overall performance suggests he could keep the Cardinals' offense in check.

The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. The Cardinals, currently at +115 on the moneyline, present a compelling betting opportunity for those looking for value, especially given the potential for an upset against a tough Cubs squad.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The St. Louis Cardinals have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Matthew Boyd in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Typically, bats like Kyle Tucker who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Erick Fedde.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.9% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Out of all starters, Erick Fedde's fastball spin rate of 2065 rpm is in the 13th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Yohel Pozo is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The St. Louis Cardinals projected batting order grades out as the 3rd-worst of the day in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+10.97 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 75 games (+10.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+5.75 Units / 18% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.48, St. Louis Cardinals 4.31

• Date: June 25, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Boyd - Cubs
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals

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