Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 6/24/2025

On June 24, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium in a critical National League Central matchup. The Cubs currently sit atop the division with a record of 46-32, while the Cardinals are in a chase with a record of 43-36. Both teams are looking to gain momentum as they head into the latter part of the season.

In their last game, the Cardinals beat the Cubs 8-2 to open this series. With a ranking of 4th in MLB, the Cubs have been particularly potent at the plate, highlighted by their 3rd best home run total. Conversely, the Cardinals’ offense ranks 15th overall, but they do boast a solid batting average that ranks 8th in the league. This dynamic sets the stage for an intriguing battle.

On the mound, the Cardinals are projected to start Michael McGreevy, who has had an impressive season thus far with a 2.70 ERA, ranking him as the 45th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. However, his peripherals suggest he might be due for some regression. McGreevy's average projection of 5.3 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed indicates he may be in for a challenging outing against a fierce Cubs lineup.

Jameson Taillon takes the hill for the Cubs, presenting a different challenge. While Taillon's ERA of 3.84 is solid, his FIP of 4.81 suggests he might not be as effective as his numbers indicate. With both pitchers projected to allow a high number of hits, this game could turn into a slugfest.

Betting markets have set a Game Total of 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. The Cardinals have an implied team total of 4.45 runs, while the Cubs sit slightly higher at 4.55 runs. With both teams displaying offensive firepower and pitching uncertainties, this matchup promises to be thrilling for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Dansby Swanson has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph dropping to 80.2-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.9% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Michael McGreevy (49.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 2 GB hitters in Chicago's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the St. Louis Cardinals offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 8th-luckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 56 games (+11.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 70 games (+8.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+7.50 Units / 188% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.04, St. Louis Cardinals 4.7

• Date: June 24, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Michael McGreevy - Cardinals

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