Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction – 6/23/2025

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Chicago Cubs on June 23, 2025, at Busch Stadium, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the National League Central. The Cubs currently hold a strong record of 46-31, while the Cardinals sit at 42-36. This matchup marks the beginning of a new series, and with both teams vying for crucial wins, the stakes are high.

In their most recent games, the Cubs showcased their offensive prowess, continuing a trend of solid play. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are having an above-average season, but they need to capitalize on their home field advantage to stay competitive. The Cardinals' offense ranks 12th overall in MLB, with a particularly impressive 5th in batting average, though they struggle with power, sitting at 23rd in home runs.

On the mound, the Cardinals are projected to start left-hander Matthew Liberatore, who has had a mixed season with a 4-6 record and a 4.08 ERA. His FIP of 3.05 suggests he may have been unlucky, hinting at potential for improvement. Liberatore projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.8 hits and 1.5 walks per game could be problematic against a potent Cubs lineup.

Ben Brown, the Cubs' right-handed starter, has had a rough season with a 5.57 ERA and a 4-5 record. However, his xFIP of 3.47 indicates he might also be due for better results. Brown's projections are similar to Liberatore's, with both expected to pitch around 5.2 innings.

Given the Cardinals' offensive capabilities and the projections suggesting a closer game than the odds imply, they have a chance to pull off a victory in this critical matchup. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive contest.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Ben Brown is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #26 HR venue in MLB in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Carson Kelly has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.7% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past two weeks.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (42.1% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The Chicago Cubs have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Victor Scott II has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.9-mph dropping to 80.7-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 6th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+10.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 71 games (+11.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• Matt Shaw has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+5.70 Units / 26% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.47, St. Louis Cardinals 4.44

• Date: June 23, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Brown - Cubs
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals

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