Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Pick – 6/26/2025

On June 26, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Chicago Cubs in what promises to be an exciting matchup at Busch Stadium. This game marks the fourth in their series, and both teams come in with solid performances this season. The Cardinals currently sit at 44-37, showing an above-average record, while the Cubs are boasting a strong 47-33 record, indicating they've had a great season thus far.

In their last outing, the Cubs edged out the Cardinals, adding extra pressure on St. Louis as they look to rebound at home. The Cardinals will send right-hander Andre Pallante to the mound, who has a 5-3 record with an average ERA of 4.48. Although Pallante’s season has featured moments of bad luck, as indicated by his xFIP of 3.56, he’s a high-groundball pitcher facing a potent Cubs lineup that ranks 4th in the league with 118 home runs. This could favor Pallante if he can keep the ball on the ground.

On the other hand, the Cubs will counter with lefty Shota Imanaga. With a 3-2 record and an impressive 2.82 ERA, Imanaga has been effective but may have benefitted from some luck, as his xFIP sits at 4.83. He projects to allow 2.8 earned runs today, which aligns well with the current projections.

Looking at the offensive statistics, the Cubs rank 4th in MLB, compared to the Cardinals' 12th. However, St. Louis has shown resilience with their best hitter performing strongly over the past week. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, signaling expectations for a competitive offensive display. With the Cardinals listed as underdogs at +115, there might be value in their potential to pull off an upset against the Cubs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Shota Imanaga is an extreme flyball pitcher (43% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #26 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Carson Kelly has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.5-mph to 96.1-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has used his secondary offerings 6.8% more often this season (37.7%) than he did last year (30.9%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball hitters like Nolan Arenado usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.5% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 8th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+9.72 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 64 games (+7.10 Units / 7% ROI)
• Thomas Saggese has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.52, St. Louis Cardinals 4.84

• Date: June 26, 2025
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals

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