Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 6/26/2024

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: June 26, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hayden Wesneski - Cubs
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs are set to clash at Oracle Park on June 26, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with the Giants holding a 38-42 record and the Cubs slightly behind at 37-43. Despite their struggles, the Giants have the upper hand in this series, having won the previous game 5-1.

On the mound for the Giants will be right-hander Hayden Birdsong, who is ranked as the 144th best starting pitcher in MLB. Birdsong has had a tough season, with projections indicating he will pitch only 4.7 innings today, allowing 2.1 earned runs, 4.3 hits, and 1.5 walks on average. His below-average strikeout rate of 4.4 per game is also a concern. However, the Giants' elite bullpen, ranked 1st in the league, could provide the necessary support to secure a win.

The Cubs will counter with Hayden Wesneski, also a right-hander. Wesneski, who has a solid ERA of 3.23, has been somewhat fortunate this season, as his 4.00 xFIP suggests he may regress. He is projected to pitch 4.3 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs, 4.1 hits, and 1.2 walks on average. While Wesneski's strikeout projection of 3.5 is low, his ability to limit runs could keep the Cubs competitive, especially with their average-ranked bullpen at 18th.

Offensively, the Giants have a slight edge, ranking 15th overall, with a notable 12th in team batting average. However, their power numbers are middling, ranking 19th in home runs. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 18th in offense, with a poor 25th in team batting average and 22nd in home runs, but they do have a respectable 9th place in stolen bases.

The Giants' Matt Chapman and the Cubs' Christopher Morel have been standouts this season, with Chapman hitting .286 and posting a .924 OPS over the last week, while Morel has recorded 15 home runs and 45 RBIs this season.

Betting markets see this as a close game, with the Giants favored at -130, implying a 54% win probability. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this, also giving the Giants a 54% chance to win. With both teams struggling, the Giants' stronger bullpen and slight offensive edge could be the deciding factors in this contest.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Hayden Birdsong has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 18.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Michael Conforto has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Heliot Ramos has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+7.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 65 games (+16.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• Brett Wisely has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games at home (+8.20 Units / 98% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.17 vs San Francisco Giants 4.29

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.