Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/24/2024

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: June 24, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Steele - Cubs
  • Spencer Howard - Giants

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs gear up for their matchup on June 24, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of below-average seasons. The Giants hold a 36-42 record, while the Cubs are slightly better at 37-41. Despite this, both teams are eager to start this series on a high note at Oracle Park.

The Giants will be sending right-hander Spencer Howard to the mound. Howard, who has struggled this season, holds a 4.86 ERA and an 0-1 record through four starts. Advanced metrics suggest he’s been a bit unlucky, with a 3.80 FIP indicating potential improvement. However, Howard’s control issues—evidenced by a 10.1% walk rate—could be problematic against a Cubs offense that ranks 5th in walks drawn. In his last outing on June 19, Howard lasted just one inning, giving up two earned runs.

On the other side, the Cubs will counter with left-hander Justin Steele. Steele has been one of the bright spots for Chicago, boasting a stellar 3.16 ERA through ten starts. However, his 3.66 SIERA suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate and might regress. Steele’s last start on June 18 was solid, going seven innings with just two earned runs and eight strikeouts.

Offensively, both teams have been average at best. The Giants rank 15th in MLB in overall offense and 13th in batting average but struggle with power (20th in home runs) and speed (30th in stolen bases). The Cubs are similar, ranking 18th overall, 25th in batting average, and 20th in home runs, but they do excel in stealing bases, ranking 8th.

The Giants’ bullpen, which ranks 2nd in the league per advanced-stat Power Rankings, could be a deciding factor against the Cubs' 23rd-ranked bullpen. Batting markets currently have the Giants as slight favorites with a -130 moneyline and an implied win probability of 54%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Cubs to have a 54% win probability, suggesting value in betting on Chicago at +110.

Look for the Giants to rely on their bullpen to keep them in the game, but the Cubs’ patient approach at the plate and Steele’s solid form could give them the edge in this close contest.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Justin Steele in the 77th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

San Francisco's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Cody Bellinger, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cody Bellinger pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the San Francisco Giants.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Luis Matos is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 46 games (+11.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 48 games (+14.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• Matt Chapman has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 36 games (+8.85 Units / 23% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.58 vs San Francisco Giants 3.94

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.