Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 4/16/2025

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On April 16, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park in a significant National League showdown. Both teams are off to strong starts this season, with the Padres sitting at 14-4 and the Cubs at 12-8. Last night, the Cubs managed a solid victory, but this matchup provides a fresh opportunity for the Padres, who are looking to assert themselves further with home-field advantage.

The Padres will send Nick Pivetta to the mound, who has been performing exceptionally well with a 1.59 ERA and a 2-1 record in three starts this season. His ability to generate strikeouts—boasting a 27.7 K%—will be crucial against a Cubs lineup that ranks 6th in the league for strikeouts. However, while Pivetta has excelled, his 2.93 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression. He projects to allow an average of 2.3 earned runs and 4.3 hits today, which could be concerning.

On the other hand, the Cubs will counter with Matthew Boyd, who brings a solid 1.59 ERA of his own, although his 4.19 xFIP indicates a potential for decline. Boyd, who also has a 1-1 record this season, faces a challenging Padres lineup that ranks 4th best in MLB offensively. Boyd's ability to limit runs will be tested, especially given his below-average strikeout rate of 4.8 projected strikeouts today.

As for betting perspectives, the Padres are currently favored at -125, suggesting a close contest is anticipated. With their potent offense and a strong bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB, the Padres have a favorable edge in this matchup, making them a compelling pick.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Justin Turner are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Chicago Cubs bats as a group grade out 9th- in baseball for power this year when assessing with their 93.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #8 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 14.6% rate last year to 22.8% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Oscar Gonzalez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 31% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.75 Units / 41% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.01, San Diego Padres 3.96

• Date: April 16, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Boyd - Cubs
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres

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