Chicago Cubs VS San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Preview – 4/9/2024

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Overview

• Date: April 9, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Brown - Cubs
  • Joe Musgrove - Padres
• Umpire:
• Run Line: Cubs 1.5 -160, Padres -1.5 135
• Money Line: Cubs 135, Padres -155
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 41%
• San Diego Padres - 59%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 40.48%
• San Diego Padres - 59.52%

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Game Preview & Prediction

On April 9, 2024, the San Diego Padres will take on the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park. The Padres will be the home team for this National League matchup. The Padres are currently having a below-average season with a record of 6-7, while the Cubs are performing well with a record of 6-4.

The Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Joe Musgrove, who is ranked as the #41 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Musgrove has started three games this year and has a record of 1-1 with an ERA of 6.28. However, his 4.67 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ben Brown, who is considered a below-average pitcher. Brown has started one game this year and has an ERA of 11.12. However, his 4.41 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and is expected to improve in future outings.

In their last game on April 8, the Padres faced the Cubs and emerged victorious with a score of 9-8. The Padres were the favorites in that game with a closing Moneyline price of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. The Cubs, on the other hand, were the underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%.

Coming into this game, the Padres offense ranks as the 11th best in MLB this season. They have shown power, ranking 10th in home runs, and speed, ranking 7th in stolen bases. Their best hitter this season has been Fernando Tatis Jr., who has recorded 9 runs, 8 RBIs, and 4 home runs with a batting average of .286 and an OPS of .903.

The Cubs offense has been impressive, ranking 4th overall in MLB. They have been consistent, ranking 9th in team batting average, and have shown some power, ranking 12th in home runs. Seiya Suzuki has been their standout hitter, with 8 runs, 12 RBIs, and 2 home runs, along with a batting average of .289 and an OPS of .909.

Based on the current odds, the Padres are considered the favorites with a moneyline of -155, implying a 59% chance of winning. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Padres as the favorites with a win probability of 59%. The Cubs are the underdogs with a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ben Brown to be on a pitch count in this game, projecting a maximum of 65 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Nico Hoerner's batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Jake Cronenworth has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.1% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 139 games (+13.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 48 games (+5.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 55% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 3.88 vs San Diego Padres 4.48

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.