Chicago Cubs VS San Diego Padres Betting Pick & Preview – 4/8/2024

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Overview

• Date: April 8, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
  • Yu Darvish - Padres
• Run Line: Cubs 1.5 -180, Padres -1.5 155
• Money Line: Cubs 115, Padres -135
• Total (Over/Under):8 100

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 45%
• San Diego Padres - 55%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 40.23%
• San Diego Padres - 59.77%

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Game Preview & Prediction

The San Diego Padres are set to host the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park on April 8, 2024, in an exciting National League matchup. The Padres, with a disappointing 5-7 record this season, are looking to turn their season around. Meanwhile, the Cubs have been stellar with a 6-3 record, showcasing their potential for a great season.

Taking the mound for the Padres is Yu Darvish, a right-handed pitcher who has been solid this year. Darvish has started three games, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.30. However, his 3.54 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate so far and could regress in future performances.

Opposing Darvish is Javier Assad, another right-handed pitcher for the Cubs. Assad has started one game this season, earning a win and maintaining a perfect 0.00 ERA. However, his 4.02 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could see a decline in his performances going forward.

The Padres' offense ranks as the 10th best in MLB, showcasing their underlying talent. However, their team batting average ranks 20th, indicating a room for improvement in their hitting consistency. On the other hand, the Cubs have been impressive, boasting the 5th best offense in MLB.

In terms of bullpens, the Padres rank 9th best, while the Cubs rank 11th best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that both teams have solid relief pitching to rely on.

In the past week, the Padres' best hitter has been Jackson Merrill, who has recorded seven hits, one home run, and one stolen base, with a batting average of .438 and an OPS of 1.125. For the Cubs, Seiya Suzuki has been their standout hitter, with seven hits, four runs, nine RBIs, two home runs, a batting average of .412, and an impressive OPS of 1.324.

Considering the projections, the Padres are the favorites in this game with a current moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. The Cubs, as underdogs, have a current moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Javier Assad in the 22nd percentile among all starting pitchers in baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

As a switch-hitter, Ian Happ will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Yu Darvish in today's game.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres infield defense projects as the 3rd-best out of every team playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jake Cronenworth will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 139 games (+13.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+14.05 Units / 24% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 3.91 vs San Diego Padres 4.55

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