Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction & Picks 8/27/2024

• Date: August 27, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Steele - Cubs
  • Jared Jones - Pirates

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Chicago Cubs on August 27, 2024, in a critical matchup for both teams as they vie for better positioning in the National League Central. Currently, the Pirates sit at 62-69, reflecting a below-average season, while the Cubs are slightly above them at 66-66, marking an average year. Both clubs are looking to build momentum, but neither team is in serious contention for a playoff spot.

In their last outing, the Cubs secured a decisive victory over the Pirates, contributing to their ongoing battle for consistency. The Pirates will send Jared Jones to the mound, who has started 16 games this season and holds a 5-6 record with a solid 3.56 ERA. Despite being ranked 64th in MLB, indicating he's above average, Jones projects to pitch only 4.8 innings today and is expected to allow around 2.4 earned runs, which is somewhat concerning given his tendency to give up 4.6 hits and 1.4 walks per outing.

On the other hand, the Cubs will counter with Justin Steele, one of the top pitchers in baseball, boasting a 3.07 ERA and a ranking of 14th among MLB starters. Steele has started 21 games this season, and while his projections suggest he may give up 2.5 earned runs and around 5.8 hits, his elite status provides the Cubs with a significant edge.

Power Rankings place the Pirates' offense as the 28th best in MLB, while the Cubs rank a slightly better 16th. However, the Cubs have a remarkable 8th ranking in stolen bases, which could be pivotal in this matchup. The projections suggest that the Pirates will score around 4.10 runs today, while the Cubs are expected to push that total to 4.87, painting a clear picture of why Chicago is favored in this contest. This game presents a chance for the Cubs to capitalize on a struggling Pirates lineup and enhance their chances for a higher finish in the standings.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Justin Steele's 91.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 15th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 97.9-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's game, Isaac Paredes is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 46.4% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jared Jones is projected to throw 81 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

As it relates to his home runs, Oneil Cruz has experienced some negative variance this year. His 22.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 33.5.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 52 of their last 89 games (+14.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.30 Units / 25% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.45 Units / 28% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.94 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.2

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