Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction & Picks 8/26/2024

• Date: August 26, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on August 26, 2024, both teams are vying for a crucial win in this National League Central matchup. The Pirates enter the game with a record of 62-68, reflecting a below-average season, while the Cubs are slightly better at 65-66, indicating an average performance overall. This game marks the first in a series that could hold significance for both squads as they look to build momentum.

Mitch Keller takes the mound for the Pirates, coming off a relatively strong season with an 11-7 record and a commendable ERA of 3.76. However, he is projected to face challenges against the Cubs' offense, which, although average overall, includes some potent hitters. The projections indicate that Keller is expected to pitch about 5.6 innings, allowing roughly 3.0 earned runs and striking out 4.9 batters. Notably, the Pirates currently rank 28th in overall offensive production, which could hamper their chances against a capable pitcher.

On the other side, Jameson Taillon will start for the Cubs, holding an 8-8 record and an ERA of 3.77. The projections suggest Taillon will pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing about 2.8 earned runs while striking out an average of 4.1 batters. Given that the Pirates rank 5th in strikeouts among MLB teams, this matchup favors Taillon's low-strikeout tendencies.

The projections from the leading MLB projection system suggest that the Pirates have a higher probability of winning today’s game compared to the betting markets’ implied probabilities. With both teams needing a win, the Pirates will rely on their ace to deliver, while the Cubs will aim to exploit the Pirates' offensive weaknesses. The total for the game is set at an average 8.5 runs, indicating an expectation for a competitive outing.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon has tallied 17.3 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 80th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Cody Bellinger has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 5.8% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Today, Isaac Paredes is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 46.3% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Mitch Keller's cut-fastball utilization has decreased by 8.2% from last season to this one (24.3% to 16.1%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Billy McKinney can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

It may be best to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 100 games (+13.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games (+5.05 Units / 16% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.40 Units / 80% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.02 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.97

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.