The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates will close out their three-game series in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. The Cubs (87-64) are locked in on sealing a postseason berth and pushing for home-field advantage in the Wild Card round. The Pirates (65-87) were officially eliminated from playoff contention with their latest loss, but they still can play spoiler and show some pride down the stretch. Here, I break down this NL Central matchup and give you my Cubs vs Pirates prediction for the day.
Our Cubs vs Pirates Pick
- Pick: Cubs moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 17, 2025, 12:35 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Matthew Boyd (Cubs) vs Johan Oviedo (Pirates)
- Stadium: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Matthew Boyd enters with a 13-8 record, 3.05 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 146 strikeouts over 171.1 innings. He’s been solid for much of the season but has had some recent slips. In his last 7 starts, his ERA has jumped up, with control issues at times becoming a factor for him.
Johan Oviedo is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts in 25.2 innings. He’s shown plenty of poise since returning from injury and should keep the Cubs’ hitters honest. But his small sample size is a concern, and his run support & bullpen behind him are less reliable than Chicago’s.
Recent team streaks
- Chicago has won three straight games coming into this contest.
- Pittsburgh has lost three games in a row.
- The Cubs are playing with postseason urgency. Their magic number to clinch a playoff spot is low.
- The Pirates are already out of playoff contention. That can lead to either relaxed play or unpredictable effort.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | Strikeouts: Over 5.5 |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Home Runs: Over 0.5 |
| Michael Busch | Total Bases: Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Cubs lead the regular-season series 9-3 over the Pirates in 2025.
- Chicago has won four straight meetings between these teams.
- This is the final matchup between these sides in the regular season.
Cubs vs Pirates Model Projection
Score Projection: Cubs 5 – Pirates 3
Win Probability: Cubs 58%, Pirates 42%
Final Thoughts
The Cubs enter this game with more urgency, stronger recent form, and a pitcher in Matthew Boyd who has been one of the more reliable arms in their rotation this season. Oviedo has exceeded expectations in his limited outings for Pittsburgh, but the Chicago offense is more balanced and should be able to handle Oviedo here. Pittsburgh’s offense is unlikely to generate enough against Boyd and Chicago’s bullpen. For bettors looking for value, I think the Cubs moneyline is the safest route here. Bettors who have a higher risk tolerance can lay the runline with Chicago in what I expect to be a two-run win for the Cubs.
