Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 6/9/2025

On June 9, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies and the Chicago Cubs will face off in a pivotal National League matchup at Citizens Bank Park. Both teams are performing well this season, with the Phillies sitting at 37-28 and the Cubs at 40-25. The Cubs have been particularly impressive, currently holding the 3rd best offense in MLB, while the Phillies rank 9th.

The Phillies are projected to start right-handed ace Zack Wheeler, who has been exceptional this year with a 6-2 record and an impressive 2.96 ERA. Wheeler's advanced metrics, including a 2.28 xERA, suggest he has been somewhat unlucky and could see even better results going forward. He projects to pitch approximately 5.5 innings, allowing around 2.1 earned runs, which positions him well against a Cubs offense that, while patient, may struggle to draw walks against Wheeler's strong command.

On the other side, the Cubs will counter with left-hander Matthew Boyd, who has a solid 3.01 ERA and a 5-3 record. However, his 3.75 xFIP indicates he may not be as fortunate moving forward. Boyd's projections also suggest he might allow more earned runs than Wheeler, which could be significant given the Cubs' recent struggles with hit production.

Betting odds favor the Phillies with a moneyline of -145 and an average implied team total of 4.04 runs. Despite the Cubs' overall strong season, their bullpen ranks 26th in MLB, which could be a critical factor if the game is close late. This matchup promises to be intriguing, especially with both teams looking to assert their dominance early in the series.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Philadelphia Phillies have 8 bats in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme groundball hitters like Kyle Tucker usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Zack Wheeler.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ian Happ has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler's 2452-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 88th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Alec Bohm has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (65% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Otto Kemp, Kyle Schwarber, Weston Wilson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.29 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 62 games (+11.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.05 Units / 39% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.15, Philadelphia Phillies 4.36

• Date: June 9, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Boyd - Cubs
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

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