Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 6/11/2025

As the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Chicago Cubs on June 11, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park, both teams are continuing their battle for position in the National League. The Cubs currently lead the Central Division with a record of 41-26, while the Phillies hold a strong 38-29 record, placing them in the thick of the Wild Card race. This matchup could have significant implications as each team aims to solidify its standing heading into the summer months.

On the mound, the Phillies are projected to start Jesus Luzardo, who has shown potential with a 5-2 record and a 4.46 ERA this season. His 3.22 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky, indicating that improvements could be on the horizon. The Cubs will counter with Ben Brown, who has struggled with a 3-4 record and a higher 5.37 ERA. Both pitchers are considered solid, with Luzardo ranking 43rd and Brown 39th among MLB starters, according to advanced stats.

Betting markets have set the Game Total at 8.5 runs, reflecting a competitive nature expected between these two teams. With the Phillies having a high implied team total of 4.30 runs, they will look to capitalize on their offensive rankings, which place them 9th in MLB. This matchup not only promises exciting baseball but also an intriguing betting opportunity as the stakes rise.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Ben Brown's fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this year (95 mph) below where it was last season (96.5 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Philadelphia's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Kyle Tucker, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs' bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Given that groundball pitchers have a big edge over groundball batters, Jesus Luzardo and his 34.2% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot in this matchup squaring off against 3 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Alec Bohm is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Brandon Marsh has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+7.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 56 games (+7.20 Units / 8% ROI)
• Ian Happ has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+8.30 Units / 32% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.05, Philadelphia Phillies 4.63

• Date: June 11, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Brown - Cubs
  • Jesus Luzardo - Phillies

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