Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 6/10/2025

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to face the Chicago Cubs on June 10, 2025, they find themselves in a tight race within the National League standings, with the Cubs holding a slight edge at 40-26 while the Phillies sit at 38-28. This matchup comes on the heels of a well-fought opening game, with the Phillies narrowly edging out the Cubs.

The pitching duel features Philadelphia's Mick Abel, who has made a solid impression this season, boasting a 0.79 ERA across two starts, despite being ranked as the 213th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, projections suggest he may be in for a rough outing today, as he’s projected to last only 4.7 innings while allowing nearly 3 earned runs. His low walk rate could work in his favor against a Cubs roster that ranks fifth in MLB for walks drawn, potentially negating one of their offensive strengths.

On the other hand, Colin Rea takes the mound for Chicago, bringing a more seasoned profile with a 3.59 ERA over ten starts. His projections forecast a decent performance, lasting 5.2 innings with an allowance of about 3.2 earned runs. Yet, even he carries a high xFIP at 4.29, indicating he might not be as effective as his ERA suggests.

Offensively, the Cubs shine with the 4th best lineup in MLB, including a .292 batting average. They will look to exploit Abel’s potential vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the Phillies, ranked 10th in overall offense, will aim to capitalize on Rea's weaker outings.

Betting lines suggest a tightly contested match, with both teams' moneylines set at -110, reflecting the competitive nature of this national league showdown. The Total is currently high at 9.5 runs, indicating sportsbooks anticipate a scoring battle. This game is pivotal as both teams strive to solidify their positions for a postseason push.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Colin Rea will tally an average of 4.1 strikeouts in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Nico Hoerner's average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 86.4-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 82.2-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

When it comes to his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has been lucky this year. His 41.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 29.2.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Brandon Marsh has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.09 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 60 games (+11.20 Units / 12% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+8.65 Units / 23% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.43, Philadelphia Phillies 5.21

• Date: June 10, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Cubs
  • Mick Abel - Phillies

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