Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction – 5/11/2025

The New York Mets will host the Chicago Cubs on May 11, 2025, at Citi Field in what promises to be an exciting National League matchup. Both teams are performing well this season, with the Mets sitting at 25-15 and the Cubs at 23-17. The Cubs are coming off a strong victory, showcasing their offensive prowess, while the Mets seek to capitalize on their recent successes as they vie for a series win.

On the mound, the Mets are projected to start right-handed pitcher Griffin Canning, who boasts an impressive 5-1 record and an excellent ERA of 2.50 this season. Despite being ranked #142 among starting pitchers, Canning's performance has been solid, although his 3.40 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit lucky thus far. Canning projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 5.1 batters, though he struggles with walks, which could be a concern against the Cubs' patient lineup.

Matthew Boyd, the Cubs' left-handed starter, has a 3-2 record and a stellar 2.75 ERA. Ranked #57 among pitchers, he has also been effective, but his 4.09 xFIP suggests possible regression. Boyd projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.4 batters, but he too has issues with walks.

Offensively, the Mets rank 5th in MLB this season, while the Cubs rank 3rd, making for a battle of potent lineups. The projections suggest the Mets have a high implied team total of 4.45 runs, which may favor their chances in this critical matchup. With both bullpens struggling—ranked 28th for the Mets and 26th for the Cubs—runs could be plentiful in this contest. Expect a fierce battle as both teams attempt to gain an edge in the series.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The New York Mets have 7 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Matthew Boyd in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 4th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Griffin Canning's 2157-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 9th percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball batters like Starling Marte are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Matthew Boyd.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The New York Mets bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 18 of their last 33 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 32 games (+13.20 Units / 35% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.10 Units / 36% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.43, New York Mets 4.26

• Date: May 11, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Boyd - Cubs
  • Griffin Canning - Mets

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