Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 5/2/2025

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Chicago Cubs on May 2, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting National League Central matchup. The Cubs enter this game with a solid 19-13 record, currently standing 2nd in the division, while the Brewers sit at 16-16, reflecting an average season thus far. The stakes are high for both teams as they look to gain momentum in a tightly contested division.

In their last outing, the Cubs showcased their offensive prowess, dominating their opponent with a powerful display that included multiple home runs. This game marks the first in a series between these two rivals, and fans can expect a competitive atmosphere at American Family Field.

On the mound, the Brewers are projected to start Quinn Priester, who has had a mixed season with a 1-0 record and a respectable ERA of 3.79. However, his 4.95 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate, indicating potential struggles ahead. Priester's high groundball rate (57 GB%) could work in his favor against a Cubs lineup that thrives on power but may be challenged by his ability to keep the ball on the ground.

Ben Brown, the Cubs' starter, has had a tougher time this year with a 2-2 record and a disappointing ERA of 6.04. However, his 4.04 xFIP shows he might be due for a turnaround, especially against a Brewers offense that ranks 15th overall. The projections indicate that Brown is likely to allow fewer earned runs than his ERA suggests.

With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup is poised to be tightly contested. The Brewers' current moneyline of -105 implies a 49% chance of victory, while the Cubs are slightly favored at -115, reflecting a 51% chance. Given the Cubs' offensive ranking as the 3rd best in MLB, they may have the edge in this matchup, particularly with their best hitter performing well recently.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Given that groundball hitters hold a sizeable advantage over flyball pitchers, Ben Brown and his 33.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard position in today's outing facing 2 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Dansby Swanson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (84% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (42.7% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Considering the 0.65 gap between Quinn Priester's 6.03 K/9 and his 6.68 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league since the start of last season in terms of strikeouts and figures to positively regress going forward.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Joey Ortiz's average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 87.8-mph figure last season has decreased to 83-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.8% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.82 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 13 away games (+8.65 Units / 57% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+5.10 Units / 12% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.82, Milwaukee Brewers 4.41

• Date: May 2, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Brown - Cubs
  • Quinn Priester - Brewers

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