Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 5/19/2025

On May 19, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Chicago Cubs at LoanDepot Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Marlins, currently sitting at 18-27, are struggling this season and are projected to start Edward Cabrera, who has had a rough go with a 0-1 record and a troubling ERA of 5.52. Cabrera’s high walk rate could be problematic, especially against a Cubs offense that ranks 4th in MLB and is known for its patience, drawing the 3rd most walks in the league.

The Cubs, on the other hand, are enjoying a solid campaign with a record of 28-19. They are set to send Ben Brown to the mound, who has been effective with a 3-3 record and an average ERA of 4.75. While his ERA is not stellar, his xFIP of 3.50 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could perform even better moving forward. Brown's ability to limit runs will be crucial against a Marlins offense that ranks just 20th overall and struggles particularly with power, sitting 24th in home runs.

In their last game, the Cubs showcased their strength, winning decisively and continuing their push for a better standing. With an implied team total of 5.05 runs for this game, the Cubs appear to be in a favorable position. Meanwhile, Miami's projected team total sits at 3.95 runs, indicating they will need a significant improvement from Cabrera and their offense to compete effectively. Given the current state of both teams, the Cubs enter this matchup as clear favorites.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Ben Brown is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #24 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

It may be best to expect negative regression for the Chicago Cubs offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Edward Cabrera's change-up usage has fallen by 6.2% from last year to this one (33.2% to 27%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+7.80 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 21 away games (+10.05 Units / 40% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.45, Miami Marlins 4.01

• Date: May 19, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Brown - Cubs
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins

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