Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Preview – 8/23/2024

• Date: August 23, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs
  • Max Meyer - Marlins

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on August 23, 2024, both teams are looking to establish momentum in a season that has seen them struggle to find consistency. The Marlins, with a dismal record of 46-81, sit at the bottom of the standings, while the Cubs, at 63-65, are hovering around the middle tier. This game marks the first in a series between these two clubs, setting the stage for a crucial matchup as both seek to improve their fortunes.

In their last outing, the Marlins lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks, while the Cubs are coming off of a blowout win over the Detroit Tigers. The Marlins will send Max Meyer to the mound, who has had an up-and-down season with a Win/Loss record of 3-3 and an ERA of 5.58. While Meyer ranks as the 148th best starting pitcher, according to advanced statistics, he has shown some signs of being unlucky, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.37. He projects to pitch an average of 5.1 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.0 hits and 1.6 walks could be problematic.

Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs' starter, has struggled as well, with a 3-10 record and a troubling 6.35 ERA. His xFIP of 4.36 suggests he might improve, yet his performance this season has been subpar. Hendricks is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, but he too faces challenges with his projections indicating he will give up 5.9 hits and 1.1 walks.

Offensively, the Marlins rank 29th in MLB for runs and home runs, while the Cubs sit at 21st for runs scored. The Marlins' best hitter, Otto Lopez, has been a bright spot recently, contributing significantly in the last week, while Ian Happ has led the Cubs' offense.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the odds indicate a closely contested match. The Marlins' current moneyline stands at +110, reflecting a 46% chance of victory, while the Cubs, at -130, are given a 54% chance. However, with both pitchers struggling, this matchup could tilt in favor of the Marlins if Meyer can harness his potential and capitalize on any weaknesses from Hendricks.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Kyle Hendricks has averaged 14.5 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 12th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Isaac Paredes's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 84.9-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 79-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs' bullpen projects as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Max Meyer's high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (58.7% this year) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

In terms of his batting average, Xavier Edwards has experienced some positive variance this year. His .343 mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .289.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Jesus Sanchez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 61 games at home (+22.45 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 101 games (+6.65 Units / 6% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+10.95 Units / 15% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.76 vs Miami Marlins 4.39

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