Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/11/2024

• Date: September 11, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Wicks - Cubs
  • Bobby Miller - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Chicago Cubs at Dodger Stadium on September 11, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League matchup. The Dodgers, with an impressive record of 86-59, are firmly in the playoff race, while the Cubs sit at 75-70, having an above-average season but not contending for the division title. In their last encounter, the Cubs triumphed over the Dodgers 6-3, handing Los Angeles a surprising defeat.

Bobby Miller is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers, despite struggling this season with a 7.79 ERA and a 2-4 record over 11 starts. His recent performance was particularly concerning, as he allowed 7 earned runs in just 5 innings in his last outing. However, advanced metrics suggest Miller has been somewhat unlucky, with a 4.46 xFIP indicating potential for improvement. He’ll need to harness his control against a Cubs offense that draws walks at the 6th highest rate in MLB.

On the other side, Jordan Wicks will start for the Cubs. He has been more consistent with a 4.03 ERA and a 2-3 record over 8 starts. While his projections indicate he may struggle today, the Dodgers’ high-octane offense, ranked 3rd in MLB, could exploit any weaknesses. With a projected team total of 5.03 runs, the Dodgers are expected to capitalize against Wicks, who has shown vulnerability in his recent outings.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Dodgers are seen as clear favorites, projecting to score an average of 5.57 runs in this game. Given the current form of both offenses and the starting pitchers’ trends, this matchup leans heavily in favor of the Dodgers, who will look to bounce back after their recent loss.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Nico Hoerner is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Freddie Freeman has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen projects as the 9th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 82 games (+11.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 27 away games (+11.05 Units / 34% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.70 Units / 42% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.74 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.53

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.