Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Pick – 4/11/2025

Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face off against the Chicago Cubs on April 11, 2025, both teams enter the matchup with strong performances this season. The Dodgers are currently 10-4 and rank as the 7th best offense in MLB, while the Cubs, at 9-6, sit closely behind at 6th. Notably, the Dodgers' powerful lineup leads the league in home runs, which could be a crucial factor this afternoon.

On the pitching front, the Dodgers are set to start Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has shown elite potential with a Power Rankings placement of 7th among starting pitchers. Despite a 1-1 record, Yamamoto's impressive ERA of 1.69 suggests he has been effective, though projections indicate he might face challenges ahead, particularly with his high walk rate of 9.5%. Meanwhile, Matthew Boyd, projected to start for the Cubs, boasts an eye-popping ERA of 0.00 over 2 games, but his 4.08 xFIP raises concerns about sustainability. Boyd's projected performance today hints at struggles, with the projections indicating he may allow 2.7 earned runs over 4.8 innings pitched.

Though both teams have solid offensive capabilities, the Dodgers' advantage lies in their powerful lineup against Boyd, who has not yet faced the Dodgers this season. Additionally, the projections suggest that the Cubs may have difficulty capitalizing on Yamamoto's weaknesses since he induces a high number of ground balls.

With a low game total of 7.5 runs and the Dodgers favored with a moneyline of -205, bettors may lean towards Los Angeles. Given the Cubs' below-average bullpen ranking (26th in MLB), the Dodgers' strong offense and superior pitching should combine well for a competitive edge in this early-season series opener.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Matthew Boyd performed well in his previous outing and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

This year, Pete Crow-Armstrong's Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 8% last year to just 0% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be wise to expect negative regression for the Chicago Cubs offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 6th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #5 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Muncy can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.20 Units / 45% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+11.30 Units / 45% ROI)

• Date: April 11, 2025
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Boyd - Cubs
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers

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