Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/28/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: July 28, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
  • Cole Ragans - Royals

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals and Chicago Cubs gear up for the third game of their series on July 28, 2024, all eyes are on Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, currently boasting a solid 57-48 record, have been performing above average this season and are looking to capitalize on their recent form. Opposite them, the struggling Cubs hold a 50-56 record, indicative of a below-average season.

Kansas City will send Cole Ragans to the mound, who has been nothing short of elite. Ranked #14 by the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, Ragans has pitched to a stellar 3.23 ERA over 21 starts this year. With a 7-6 Win/Loss record, he’s been a consistent presence for the Royals. On the other hand, Chicago will counter with Javier Assad, whose 3.15 ERA suggests he's been performing well on the surface, but his 4.52 xFIP indicates he might regress.

Ragans is projected to go about 5.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, which is above average. However, his projections show some vulnerabilities, including allowing 5.2 hits and 2.1 walks, both of which are concerning. Meanwhile, Assad's projections are less favorable, with an expected 3.1 earned runs in 5.1 innings and just 3.2 strikeouts, indicating that the Royals’ offense, ranked 12th in MLB, could find success against him.

Offensively, Kansas City seems to have an edge. Their lineup is bolstered by Bobby Witt Jr., who has been on fire over the last week, posting a .500 batting average and a 1.372 OPS. Comparatively, the Cubs’ offense ranks 22nd, with Seiya Suzuki being their standout performer recently, hitting .348 with a 1.096 OPS over the last seven games.

The Royals’ bullpen, ranked 16th in MLB, should also provide a sturdier anchor compared to the Cubs’ bullpen, which sits at 25th. This disparity could prove crucial in the latter stages of the game. Additionally, the Royals' patience at the plate could mitigate Assad's control issues, given their #4 ranking in least walks in MLB.

With Kansas City as the -170 betting favorite and an implied win probability of 61%, they not only hold the statistical upper hand but also the momentum. Expect the Royals to leverage their stronger pitching and more reliable offense to clinch this matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Javier Assad's higher usage rate of his fastball this year (55.6 compared to 49.9% last season) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

As it relates to his home runs, Patrick Wisdom has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His 39.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 33.2.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (42.3% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 4th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Cole Ragans’s fastball velocity over his last 3 starts (93.8 mph) has been significantly lower than than his seasonal rate (95.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Kansas City ranks as the #29 offense in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (41% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 96 games (+15.55 Units / 15% ROI)
• Nick Loftin has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.80 Units / 50% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.71 vs Kansas City Royals 5.46

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