Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros Pick – 6/29/2025

As the Houston Astros host the Chicago Cubs on June 29, 2025, both teams find themselves in a neck-and-neck battle for playoff positioning. With identical records of 49-34, the stakes are high in this interleague matchup. On Saturday, the Cubs beat the Astros to even this three-game set at a game apiece, setting up a high-stakes rubber match on Sunday.

Framber Valdez, projected to start today, has been a dominant force on the mound, ranking 14th among MLB pitchers, which solidifies his elite status. His impressive 2.88 ERA and a solid Win/Loss record of 8-4 highlight a season where he has consistently kept hitters off-balance, particularly with his high groundball rate of 61%. This could prove advantageous against a powerful Cubs offense that ranks 4th in home runs this season.

On the other hand, Jameson Taillon, who is set to start for the Cubs, has struggled by comparison. With a 4.47 ERA and a 7-5 record, he’s been less effective, sitting lower in the Power Rankings and projected to face challenges against an Astros lineup that, while ranked 14th overall, boasts the 5th best batting average in MLB.

While the Astros' bullpen ranks 13th, providing an average level of support, the Cubs' bullpen struggles at 26th, which could be a deciding factor late in the game. With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs and the Astros favored at -150, the projections suggest a favorable outcome for Houston, particularly given their recent form and Valdez's stellar performance on the mound.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon's 91.7-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 22nd percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Over the past two weeks, Carson Kelly's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 3rd-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Chicago Cubs.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Considering that groundball batters have a sizeable advantage over flyball pitchers, Framber Valdez and his 58.6% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome position in this matchup facing 3 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Altuve has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph dropping to 72.5-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Houston Astros bats jointly rank in the cellar of baseball this year ( 3rd-worst) as far as their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 81 games (+13.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 76 games (+9.15 Units / 8% ROI)
• Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.95 Units / 24% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.54, Houston Astros 4.45

• Date: June 29, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

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