Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros Pick – 6/28/2025

The Houston Astros will host the Chicago Cubs on June 28, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. Both teams are in solid standing, with the Astros holding a record of 49-33 and the Cubs closely trailing at 48-34. This game marks the second in a series that is crucial for both teams as they vie for postseason positioning.

In their last outing, the Cubs fell to the Astros, but they’ve been riding a wave of momentum with their offense currently ranked 4th in MLB. Meanwhile, the Astros are also faring well, ranking 14th overall, but showing inconsistency in their power numbers, sitting 15th in home runs.

On the mound, the Astros will lean on Lance McCullers Jr., who has had a challenging season with a 1-2 record and a 4.91 ERA, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky, according to his 3.91 xFIP. McCullers Jr. projects to pitch around 4.3 innings today while allowing 2.1 earned runs, which fits the narrative of a pitcher struggling to find his rhythm. On the flip side, Colin Rea will take the ball for the Cubs, with a 4-3 record and a more favorable 4.42 ERA. However, projections suggest Rea might have benefited from some good fortune this season.

Betting markets perceive this matchup as close, with the Astros favored at -130, reflecting a 54% implied win probability. Given the Cubs’ offensive prowess combined with Rea’s potential to stifle the Astros’ lineup, they could well exceed expectations today. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a balanced offensive outlook from both sides.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Extreme flyball bats like Kyle Tucker tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr..

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago Cubs projected lineup profiles as the 2nd-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Lance McCullers Jr. must realize this, because he has gone to his non-fastballs a lot this year: 72.3% of the time, placing in the 98th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Christian Walker has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Houston Astros bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 82 games (+14.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 75 games (+8.95 Units / 8% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 52% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.83, Houston Astros 4.5

• Date: June 28, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Cubs
  • Lance McCullers Jr. - Astros

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