Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers Prediction – 6/7/2025

As the Chicago Cubs visit Comerica Park on June 7, 2025, to face the Detroit Tigers, both teams are riding high with impressive seasons. The Tigers sit at 42-23, while the Cubs are close behind at 39-24. This matchup is crucial as it marks the second game in the series between these two competitive clubs. In their most recent encounter, the Tigers edged out the Cubs, showcasing their strong offensive prowess.

Detroit's starting pitcher, Keider Montero, is projected to take the mound. While he has a Win/Loss record of 2-1 this season, his advanced metrics aren't encouraging. Ranked as the 292nd best starting pitcher in MLB, Montero's 4.02 ERA is above average, but his 4.69 xFIP suggests he’s been benefitting from some good luck. Montero projects to pitch 5.1 innings today, but with an average of 2.9 earned runs allowed and 5.3 hits per outing, there are concerns about his effectiveness against a potent Cubs lineup.

On the other side, Jameson Taillon, who has a 5-3 record and a solid 3.76 ERA, is set to start for Chicago. While Taillon has also been deemed below average in the eyes of the advanced stats, he does have the benefit of facing a high-strikeout Tigers offense. His projections for today include allowing around 2.7 earned runs and striking out 4.8 batters, which is just below average.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 9th in MLB, bolstered by a strong lineup, while the Cubs boast the 4th best offense, highlighted by their 2nd place ranking in team batting average. With both teams displaying their strengths, this game promises to be competitive, though the Tigers' pitching struggles could tilt the advantage in favor of the Cubs. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Typically, hitters like Kyle Tucker who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Keider Montero.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Despite technically being the "starter" in today's game, Tyler Holton may not stay on the mound for more than a couple innings considering he will be treated as more of an opener.

• Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.

Over the past two weeks, Trey Sweeney's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Spencer Torkelson pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.1% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 64 games (+13.63 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 24 games (+7.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.35 Units / 25% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.82, Detroit Tigers 4.24

• Date: June 7, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Keider Montero - Tigers

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