Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/13/2024

• Date: September 13, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

On September 13, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will host the Chicago Cubs at Coors Field in a National League showdown. Both teams are looking to change their fortunes, with the Rockies languishing at a disappointing 55-92 this season, while the Cubs hover around .500 at 75-71. The stakes are not particularly high for either team, but as the regular season winds down, every game counts for pride and momentum going into the offseason.

In their last outings, the Rockies are coming off a win over the Detroit Tigers in surprising fashion. The Cubs, on the other hand, are having an average season and will hope to capitalize on the Rockies' misfortunes while bouncing back from a loss their last time out. Starting for Colorado is Austin Gomber, who has not been at his best with a 5-10 record and a mediocre 4.50 ERA this year. Gomber projects to allow 3.4 earned runs today, which is concerning given the Rockies' offensive performance ranks only 21st in MLB.

Facing him will be Javier Assad for Chicago, who boasts a solid 3.14 ERA and a 7-5 record. However, Assad has struggled with walks, sitting at almost 10% this season, which may be problematic against a Rockies lineup that rarely takes free passes. Assad’s solid pitching would usually position the Cubs as favorites—indeed, the projections suggest the Cubs should outperform their current betting line of -140.

With the Game Total set at a high 11.0 runs, expect some fireworks, but don’t discount the Rockies' potential to surprise, especially with Ryan McMahon heating up at the plate. The Rockies' lineup should aim to exploit Assad's weaknesses, creating an intriguing matchup as both teams continue to vie for personal victories in this late-season series opener.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Javier Assad's sinker usage has spiked by 5.8% from last season to this one (29.8% to 35.6%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cody Bellinger has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Austin Gomber’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2122 rpm) has been quite a bit worse than than his seasonal rate (2183 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Ezequiel Tovar has experienced some positive variance this year. His .321 figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .282.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Colorado Rockies bats collectively place 10th- in the majors for power this year when assessing with their 8.3% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 away games (+13.15 Units / 37% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+13.40 Units / 33% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 6.62 vs Colorado Rockies 5.86

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