Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies Prediction & Picks 9/14/2024

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs roll into Coors Field on September 14, 2024, they find themselves in a tight race in the National League, standing at 75-72 and looking to solidify their Wild Card positioning. In contrast, the Colorado Rockies, with a disappointing 56-92 record, are vying to finish their season on a positive note, having beaten the Cubs the day prior.

The Rockies are projected to start Kyle Freeland, who has been having an underwhelming season, sporting a 4.97 ERA and ranking as the 170th best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite being a low-walk pitcher with a 5.8 BB%, Freeland has struggled against high-strikeout offenses, and the Cubs may exploit that weakness. Jameson Taillon, set to take the mound for Chicago, has been solid, with a respectable 3.57 ERA and a 10-8 win/loss record this year. His ability to limit walks (4.6 BB%) against the Rockies, who are among the league leaders in fewest walks drawn, gives Taillon a notable advantage.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 13th overall, while the Rockies sit at 21st, signaling that runs may come at a premium for Colorado. However, the Rockies are projected to score an impressive 5.02 runs today against a Cubs bullpen that is ranked 20th in the league. Hunter Goodman has emerged as a standout for the Rockies, recently posting a .313 batting average over the last week, which will be crucial as they look to put runs on the board.

The game total is set at a high 11.0 runs, indicating expectations for a scoring spree. With the probabilities favoring the Cubs, they will aim to build on their average offensive momentum and capitalize on Freeland’s struggles to secure a vital win in the playoff chase.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon has averaged 17.6 outs per GS this year, grading out in the 86th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Nico Hoerner has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the Chicago Cubs will record 6.64 runs on average in this game: the most of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The Chicago Cubs have 6 batters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Freeland today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Charlie Blackmon has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .324 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• Jameson Taillon has hit the Strikeouts Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.30 Units / 38% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 6.64 vs Colorado Rockies 6

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.