The Chicago Cubs will travel to Great American Ball Park on Sunday hoping to avoid being swept by the Cincinnati Reds. The Cubs already have a postseason berth locked up, but are pushing to improve their positioning. The Reds, meanwhile, are clinging to their Wild Card hopes and need this game badly. Here, I break down this huge NL Central matchup and give you my Cubs vs Reds prediction today.
Our Cubs vs Reds Pick
- Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
- Date & Time: Sunday, September 21, 2025, 1:40 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Andrew Abbott (Reds) vs Jameson Taillon (Cubs)
- Stadium: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Andrew Abbott has been one of the better arms for the Reds this season, posting a 2.88 ERA over 156.1 innings. He has a solid strikeout rate and decent control as well. He’s been particularly strong at home and will look to keep it that way in this contest. Jameson Taillon has been good recently, but his season ERA of 3.93 reflects some vulnerability, especially on the road. Taillon’s WHIP is solid at 1.09, but his away splits are worse, which could hurt facing a motivated Reds offense at GABP.
Recent team streaks
- The Reds have won four games in a row going into this series finale.
- Chicago has dropped three straight games to the Reds during this four-game series.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (Reds) | Over 0.5 HR |
| Elly De La Cruz (Reds) | Over 0.5 HR |
| Seiya Suzuki (Cubs) | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Jameson Taillon | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Cincinnati holds a 7-5 lead in their season series agianst the Cubs.
- This is the final regular-season meeting between these teams in 2025.
- Cincinnati has won five of the last six games played between these teams.
Cubs vs Reds Model Projection
Score Projection: Reds 5 – Cubs 3
Win Probability: Reds 52%, Cubs 48%
Final Thoughts
The Cincinnati Reds have all the momentum coming into this series finale from Cincy. Abbott has proven at home that he can quiet strong lineups, and the Cubs have shown some inconsistencies away from Wrigley and in converting timely hits into runs. The Reds’ offensive streak, particularly with guys like Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz, gives them more than enough firepower. I’m taking the Reds to win this game, complete a four-game sweep of the Cubs, and help their Wild Card chances.
