The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds will meet in a huge NL Central matchup on Thursday at Great American Ball Park. The Cubs have clinched their first playoff berth since 2020 and are looking to maintain their momentum here. The Reds are also still alive in the postseason race and will look for a win to help their chances of getting in. Here, I break down this division matchup on the diamond and give you my Cubs vs Reds prediction.
Our Cubs vs Reds Pick
- Pick: Reds Moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 18, 2025, 7:15 PM EDT
- Starting Pitchers: Colin Rea (CHC) vs Hunter Greene (CIN)
- Stadium: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Colin Rea (10-6, 4.23 ERA) takes the mound for the Cubs. Rea has been a reliable starter this season, providing stability in the rotation. He doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, though, which will mean plenty of balls in play. That has the potential to get dangerous against an explosive Reds lineup tonight.
Hunter Greene (6-4, 3.01 ERA) starts for the Reds. Greene has been dominant at home, with a 1.69 ERA and a .145 batting average against in nine starts at Great American Ball Park. His overpowering stuff makes him a tough opponent, but the Cubs’ offense has shown the ability to perform against top-tier pitching.
Recent Team Streaks
- Chicago Cubs: The Cubs have won four consecutive games and are 7-1 in their last eight. They most recently earned a sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates to clinch a playoff spot.
- Cincinnati Reds: The Reds have shown signs of life. They have won two of their last three games, including a 6-2 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals, where Spencer Steer drove in five runs.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
| Michael Busch | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Cubs hold a 5-4 lead in their season series against the Reds this year.
- The Reds took two out of three games in Chicago in the last series played between these teams.
- Chicago is 27-18 against NL Central opponents this season.
- Cincinnati is 19-23 against teams from their own division in 2025.
Cubs vs Reds Model Projection
- Score Projection: Reds 5 – Cubs 3
- Win Probability: Reds 58%, Cubs 42%
Final Thoughts
The Cubs have had a stronger season than the Reds overall this year. But the Reds are still fighting for their playoff lives, while the Cubs are more or less locked into the top Wild Card spot in the National League. That motivational edge should help the Reds to get a win in this game. Cincinnati should also be aided by the fact that they have a starting pitching advantage with Hunter Greene on the mound tonight. I’ll take the Reds to get a win at home in this matchup with Chicago.
