Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 5/25/2025

On May 25, 2025, a compelling National League Central matchup unfolds as the Cincinnati Reds host the Chicago Cubs at Great American Ball Park. Cincinnati enters with a 26-27 record, indicating an average season, while Chicago leads with a solid 31-21.

The starting pitchers present a stark contrast: the Reds are projected to start Nick Lodolo, who ranks as the 85th best pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, while the Cubs counter with Ben Brown, currently ranked 47th. Lodolo has shown flashes of brilliance with a commendable ERA of 3.22, yet his xFIP of 3.96 suggests he may have been fortunate in his outings. He projects to pitch 5.3 innings today but has been prone to allowing a concerning 5.7 hits and 3.1 earned runs on average.

Conversely, Ben Brown’s struggles are evident, with a high ERA of 5.44, yet his 3.24 xFIP indicates he has potential for improvement. He projects to allow 2.4 earned runs and strike out an average of 5.6 batters. Given the Reds' high strikeout rate ranking 4th in MLB, Brown might exploit this weakness effectively.

Offensively, the Cubs feature the 3rd best lineup in baseball and possess a potent run-scoring ability, while the Reds rank 12th. Cincinnati's opportunity lies with their speed on the basepaths, ranking 4th in stolen bases, which could challenge the Cubs' pitching.

Betting markets hint at a close contest, reflected by the Reds' moneyline of +100 and the Cubs’ at -120, with an implied game total of 9.0 runs. With Lodolo's control helping to mitigate the Cubs' patient offense, fans can expect an intriguing battle in what could be a pivotal game in the season for both teams.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Ben Brown's 94.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.8-mph fall off from last season's 96.5-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball bats like Justin Turner tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Lodolo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo is an extreme groundball pitcher (45.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue among all stadiums — in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Matt McLain has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (74% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 29 games (+12.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games (+8.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 28% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.43, Cincinnati Reds 4.55

• Date: May 25, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Brown - Cubs
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

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