Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 5/24/2025

The Cincinnati Reds host the Chicago Cubs on May 24, 2025, in the second game of their series, following a tight contest yesterday that saw the Reds narrowly fall to the Cubs. Currently, the Reds sit at 25-27, struggling this season, while the Cubs boast a solid 31-20 record, making them one of the stronger teams in the league.

On the mound, the Reds are projected to start Andrew Abbott, who has had an impressive season with a 1.80 ERA and a perfect 3-0 record. However, his 3.99 xFIP indicates that he may have benefited from some good fortune, and he projects to struggle today, allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs over 5.0 innings. Abbott’s high flyball rate could be a concern against a powerful Cubs offense that ranks 4th in home runs this season.

The Cubs counter with Colin Rea, whose 2.38 ERA is also commendable, but the projections suggest he is due for regression with a 4.08 xFIP. Rea has been effective against a Reds offense that ranks 4th in strikeouts, potentially giving him an edge today. His ability to limit walks, allowing just 1.6 on average, will be crucial against a Reds lineup that has shown some patience at the plate.

While the Reds’ offense is ranked 12th overall, they have struggled recently. With the Cubs projected to score nearly 5 runs, the Reds will need a strong performance from Abbott and their lineup to keep this game competitive.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Colin Rea is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue in MLB in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

This season, Carson Kelly has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.4 mph compared to last year's 91.4 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Chicago Cubs have 7 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Abbott today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme flyball bats like Elly De La Cruz usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Colin Rea.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.4% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.70 Units / 58% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 46 games (+13.25 Units / 24% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 38% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.78, Cincinnati Reds 5.23

• Date: May 24, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Colin Rea - Cubs
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

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