Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 5/23/2025

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on May 23, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their standings in the National League Central. The Cubs enter this matchup with a strong record of 30-20 and rank 3rd overall in MLB offense, while the Reds, at 25-26, hover around the middle of the pack. Despite the disparity, the Reds have the home-field advantage at Great American Ball Park, where they hope their solid offense can shine.

In their last outing, the Reds struggled offensively in a loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. They will look to bounce back today as they take on the Cubs' left-handed starter, Matthew Boyd, who has been good with a 2.98 ERA this season but carries a concerning 3.82 xFIP, suggesting he may not be as effective going forward.

On the mound, Hunter Greene is projected to start for the Reds. With an impressive 2.36 ERA and a 4-2 Win/Loss record, Greene is ranked as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, indicating he is having a strong season. However, he faces a robust Cubs offense that has belted 69 home runs this season. Greene's high flyball rate (50% FB) could potentially turn his mistakes into home runs, a risky proposition against such a powerful lineup.

Both teams have a moneyline set at -110, indicating close competition expected in this game. Current projections suggest an average team total of 4.25 runs for both teams, highlighting the likelihood of a tightly contested affair. With the Reds looking to capitalize on their recent offensive success and Greene's strong performance atop the mound, they could very well outperform their average standing in a crucial divisional matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Cincinnati Reds have 8 bats in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme flyball hitters like Kyle Tucker usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Greene.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kyle Tucker pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.5% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene's 98.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1-mph spike from last season's 97.6-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Matt McLain is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Rece Hinds, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.30 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+9.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• Hunter Greene has hit the Strikeouts Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.35 Units / 70% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.21, Cincinnati Reds 4.81

• Date: May 23, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Boyd - Cubs
  • Hunter Greene - Reds

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