Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick & Preview – 8/10/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: August 10, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Steele - Cubs
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

As the Chicago White Sox gear up to face the Chicago Cubs on August 10, 2024, the stakes are low for both teams, but especially for the White Sox, who sit at a dismal 28-90 this season. The Cubs, with a record of 58-60, are also not in contention for the division but have shown some signs of life. In their previous matchup on August 9, the Cubs edged out the White Sox with a close 7-6 victory, marking a tough loss for Chicago's struggling squad.

The pitching matchup favors the Cubs significantly, as Justin Steele, ranked 21st among MLB starters, takes the mound against Chris Flexen, who is a mere 287th. Steele has been solid this year with a 3.33 ERA, while Flexen's struggles are evident with an abysmal 5.53 ERA and a 2-11 record. Flexen's last outing was particularly brutal, where he allowed 6 earned runs over just 2 innings pitched. Meanwhile, Steele pitched effectively in his last start, going 7 innings with only 2 earned runs allowed, bolstering his reputation as a reliable arm.

Offensively, the White Sox rank 30th in the league, being one of the worst teams in baseball this season. Their best hitter, Andrew Vaughn, has struggled to provide consistent support. The projections suggest that the White Sox will score around 3.99 runs in this game, which is low, while the Cubs are projected to score about 5.33 runs.

With the Cubs as strong favorites, current odds reflect a moneyline of -240, while the White Sox sit at +205. This game is pivotal for the Cubs as they look to build momentum against a floundering White Sox team that has been hard to trust all season.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Justin Steele's 91.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 16th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.310) provides evidence that Pete Crow-Armstrong has suffered from bad luck this year with his .251 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Chris Flexen has averaged 14.7 outs per game per started this year, checking in at the 13th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Andrew Benintendi is penciled in 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Lenyn Sosa has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 45 games (+4.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 111 games (+8.45 Units / 7% ROI)
• Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 43 games (+12.10 Units / 18% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.39 vs Chicago White Sox 4.04

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