Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/16/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Overview

• Date: April 16, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs
  • Tommy Henry - D-Backs
• Run Line: Cubs 1.5 -185, D-Backs -1.5 160
• Money Line: Cubs 110, D-Backs -130
• Total (Over/Under):10 -110

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 46%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 45.84%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 54.16%

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup scheduled for April 16, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will take on the Chicago Cubs at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks will be the home team, while the Cubs will be the away team. Both teams have shown different levels of performance this season, with the Diamondbacks having an average record of 8-8, while the Cubs boast a great record of 9-6.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start left-handed pitcher Tommy Henry, who has had a challenging start to the season. Henry has a win-loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 5.79, which is considered horrible. However, his 4.15 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On the other hand, the Cubs will start right-handed pitcher Kyle Hendricks, who has struggled with an ERA of 12.08. Similarly, his 4.41 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

The Diamondbacks offense ranks as the 8th best in MLB this season, showcasing their underlying talent. They have an average team batting average and home run ranking, but excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd in the league. The Cubs offense, while still solid, ranks slightly lower at 11th in MLB. They have a good team batting average and stolen base ranking, but an average home run ranking.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Diamondbacks bullpen is considered the 20th best in the league, while the Cubs bullpen ranks 12th. This indicates that the Cubs may have a slight advantage in terms of relief pitching.

In terms of team performance, the Diamondbacks have been having an average season, while the Cubs have been performing exceptionally well. However, it's important to note that these rankings are estimates of underlying talent and may not reflect actual year-to-date performance.

Based on the current odds, the Diamondbacks are favored with a moneyline set at -125, implying a win probability of 53%. The Cubs have a moneyline set at +105, suggesting a win probability of 47%. The high implied team totals for both teams, with the Diamondbacks at 5.18 runs and the Cubs at 4.82 runs, indicate that a high-scoring game is expected.

It should be noted that Tommy Henry, the Diamondbacks' projected starter, has struggled with control, with a high walk rate. This could benefit the patient Cubs offense, which ranks third in the league in walks. On the other hand, Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs' projected starter, faces a disciplined Diamondbacks offense that ranks third in the league in fewest strikeouts. This could pose a challenge for Hendricks, who relies on strikeouts to succeed.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Kyle Hendricks's 87-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 1st percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Tommy Henry will average a total of 2.83 earned runs in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 128 games (+13.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games (+6.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Yan Gomes has only hit the Total Bases Under in 1 of his last 5 games (-2.80 Units / -56% ROI)

Cubs vs D-Backs Prediction: Cubs 5 - D-Backs 5.16

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