Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 3/30/2025

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Chicago Cubs at Chase Field on March 30, 2025, both teams are looking to turn around their sluggish starts to the season. The Diamondbacks enter this matchup with a record of 1-2, while the Cubs are slightly better at 2-3. Neither team is making a strong case for contention early on, and the stakes feel heightened as this game marks the fourth in their series.

In their most recent outing, the Diamondbacks struggled, continuing a trend of poor performance. Arizona is projected to start Eduardo Rodriguez, who ranks as the 100th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Rodriguez's numbers reveal an average outing in terms of earned runs allowed (2.4) but concerning projections for innings pitched (4.8) and hits allowed (4.9). This paints a picture of a pitcher who may struggle to keep the Cubs' offense at bay.

On the other side, the Cubs will send Matthew Boyd to the mound. Boyd is ranked 79th among starting pitchers, indicating a slightly better outlook than Rodriguez. His projections are similarly mixed, with an average earned run projection of 2.4 but a concerning hits allowed projection of 4.8. Both pitchers are left-handed, which could play a role in how each lineup performs.

With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs, betting markets suggest a close contest, reflected in the Diamondbacks' moneyline of -130 and the Cubs' +110. The Diamondbacks have an implied team total of 4.71 runs, while the Cubs are projected for 4.29 runs. Given the current odds, Arizona may have the edge in this matchup, making them a team to watch as they seek to capitalize on their home field advantage.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (30.9) implies that Kyle Tucker has been lucky since the start of last season with his 40.7 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (43.5% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Eduardo Rodriguez was rolling in his previous start and allowed 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Gabriel Moreno has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be best to expect weaker performance for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the luckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 108 games (+29.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 away games (+10.90 Units / 58% ROI)
• Matthew Boyd has hit the Strikeouts Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 66% ROI)

• Date: March 30, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Boyd - Cubs
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs

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