Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction – 3/28/2025

• Date: March 28, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on March 28, 2025, both teams are hoping to turn a page in their season narratives. The Cubs enter the game with a disappointing 1-2 record, continuing their struggles that have defined their start. In a similar vein, the Diamondbacks look to get their first win in this matchup.

Merrill Kelly is projected to take the mound for Arizona. His statistics indicate that he averages 4.9 innings pitched, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 4.7 batters, and surrendering 4.8 hits with 1.7 walks. While these numbers are not encouraging, they reflect a steady presence on the hill.

On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Jameson Taillon, who currently ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB. Taillon projects to pitch an average of 5.1 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs, striking out only 3.4 batters, and yielding an average of 5.5 hits and 1.5 walks. These projections highlight a clear mismatch in pitching effectiveness, favoring the Diamondbacks.

The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, which is considered average, and betting markets indicate a close contest, with Arizona at -135 and Chicago at +115. The Diamondbacks have a solid implied team total of 4.50 runs, while the Cubs sit at an average 4.00 runs. Ultimately, Arizona's favorable pitching matchup, combined with a potentially high-scoring game, sets the stage for a critical showdown in what could be a turning point for both clubs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Jameson Taillon is projected to throw 85 pitches in today's matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-most of all pitchers on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.

Matthew Shaw is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (43.5% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Naylor stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (19.9 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy group of hitters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 110 games (+27.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 away games (+10.80 Units / 52% ROI)

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.