Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick & Preview – 4/15/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Overview

• Date: April 15, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ben Brown - Cubs
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs
• Run Line: Cubs 1.5 -165, D-Backs -1.5 145
• Money Line: Cubs 125, D-Backs -145
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -120

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 43%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 57%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 41.32%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 58.68%

Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game Preview & Prediction

In an exciting National League matchup, the Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the Chicago Cubs on April 15, 2024, at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks will be the home team, while the Cubs will be the away team.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Merrill Kelly, who has been impressive this season. Kelly has started three games and holds a perfect 2-0 win/loss record with an excellent ERA of 2.29. However, his 3.56 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate so far and could regress going forward.

On the other hand, the Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ben Brown. Brown has started two games this season, but his performance has been less than stellar, with a 6.10 ERA. However, his 3.96 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and might perform better in the future.

The Diamondbacks' offense has been solid this season, ranking as the 7th best in MLB. They have shown prowess in team batting average and stolen bases, ranking 11th and 3rd, respectively. The Cubs' offense has also been decent, ranking 11th in MLB, with a strong team batting average and stolen bases ranking 9th and 6th, respectively.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Merrill Kelly is considered the 48th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating his skill and reliability. In contrast, Ben Brown is considered an average pitcher.

The Diamondbacks have a slight edge in terms of their bullpen, which ranks 20th in MLB, while the Cubs' bullpen ranks 13th. However, these rankings are estimates of underlying talent, regardless of actual performance.

Based on the current odds, the Diamondbacks are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -145, implying a win probability of 57%. The Cubs, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +120, with an implied win probability of 43%.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Compared to the average pitcher, Ben Brown has been granted less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -14.4 fewer adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Nico Hoerner's 1.7% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power) is in the 3rd percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Merrill Kelly's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (68.4% vs. 57.8% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

This season, there has been a decline in Jake McCarthy's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.96 ft/sec last year to 28.37 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Gabriel Moreno, the D-Backs's expected catcher in today's matchup, grades out as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Cubs vs D-Backs Prediction: Cubs 4.34 - D-Backs 4.93

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