Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals Pick For 8/30/2024

• Date: August 30, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on August 30, 2024, both teams are looking to improve their standings, albeit with different trajectories. The Nationals, at 61-73, are having a below-average season, while the Cubs, with a 68-66 record, are hovering around average. The Cubs will be looking to build momentum after a recent win over the Pittsburgh Pirates, while the Nationals will aim to do the same after beating the New York Yankees in their last outing.

On the mound, the Nationals will send Jake Irvin to the hill. Despite having a respectable ERA of 3.80, Irvin ranks as the 168th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he has struggled at times this season. His projected performance suggests he will pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing approximately 2.7 earned runs, but his tendency to allow 5.1 hits and 1.7 walks could be problematic against a patient Cubs offense that ranks 5th in MLB in walks.

Shota Imanaga, the Cubs' left-handed starter, has been more effective this season, boasting a 3.08 ERA and a 10-3 record. His average projected innings pitched is 6.0, with an expected 2.4 earned runs allowed. Imanaga’s ability to keep runs off the board will be crucial, especially given that the Nationals rank 22nd in offensive efficiency.

Interestingly, the projections suggest that the Nationals' offense, which has been lackluster overall, may struggle against Imanaga’s high-flyball tendencies, particularly since they rank 29th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Cubs have a solid chance to capitalize on Irvin’s inconsistencies. With a game total set at 8.0 runs, the Cubs are favored, and their offensive depth could make a significant difference in this matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Shota Imanaga's 2445-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 85th percentile among all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Seiya Suzuki has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .278 rate is significantly inflated relative to his .237 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Chicago's 92.6-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #6 club in the game this year by this metric.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Compared to average, Jake Irvin has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 3.7 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Luis Garcia is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 76 of their last 134 games (+10.03 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games (+9.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+9.85 Units / 18% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.74 vs Washington Nationals 3.82

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