Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals Game 2 Prediction For 7/13/2024

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 2 Details

• Date: July 13, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals

Cubs vs Cardinals Game 2 Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 2 Betting Preview

As we head into the second game of today's double-header at Busch Stadium on July 13, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals (48-45) are set to host the Chicago Cubs (46-49) in what promises to be an intriguing National League Central matchup. Both teams are looking to build momentum in this third game of the series. Yesterday, the Cardinals edged out the Cubs, and they'll be aiming to carry that winning energy into this game.

On the mound, the Cardinals will start Kyle Gibson, a right-hander with a 7-3 record and a 3.96 ERA this season. Though Gibson's ERA is respectable, his 4.72 xERA suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and might see a dip in performance. Gibson projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allow 2.8 earned runs, and strike out 5.2 batters. However, his tendency to struggle with control (9.6 BB% this year) could spell trouble against a patient Cubs lineup that ranks 5th in drawing walks.

The Cubs counter with righty Javier Assad, who boasts an impressive 3.04 ERA across his 16 starts this season. However, Assad's peripheral stats, including a 4.27 xERA, indicate that he, too, has benefited from some luck. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts that Assad will pitch just 4.3 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs and striking out 3.2 batters. His brief outings and below-average strikeout rate could place significant strain on a Cubs bullpen that ranks 18th in the Power Rankings.

Offensively, both teams have seen average performance this season. The Cardinals' lineup ranks 19th in overall offense, with a notable 15th-place rank in team batting average. In contrast, their power numbers lag, sitting at 25th in home runs. On the Cubs' side, the offense ranks 18th overall but has struggled with consistency, evidenced by a 23rd-place rank in team batting average.

Recent standout performances include Alec Burleson for the Cardinals and Michael Busch for the Cubs. Over the last week, Burleson has hit .292 with a .903 OPS, while Busch has been on a tear, batting .370 with a 1.097 OPS and 2 home runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Javier Assad's higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (55.3 compared to 49.9% last season) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Michael Busch has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .278 mark is a good deal higher than his .223 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (42.1% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

St. Louis's 13.9° launch angle (an advanced stat to study the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in the league this year: #5 overall.

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 56 games (+5.60 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 43 away games (+9.50 Units / 20% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Game 2 Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.45 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.81

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