Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals Prediction For 7/12/2024

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: July 12, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs are set to face off on July 12, 2024, at Busch Stadium. This National League Central matchup sees the Cardinals, sitting at 48-44 and having an above-average season, take on the Cubs, who are 45-49 and struggling. The Cardinals hold an edge in the standings and are looking to extend their lead.

Sonny Gray will start for the Cardinals, bringing his strong season performance to the mound. Gray, with a 9-5 record and a 3.30 ERA, is ranked as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. His xFIP of 2.75 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could perform even better going forward. Gray's control has been impressive, with a low 6.5% walk rate, which should counteract the Cubs' patient offense that's 4th in drawing walks.

On the other side, Kyle Hendricks gets the nod for the Cubs. Hendricks has had a rough season with a 1-7 record and a 7.53 ERA, although his 4.31 xFIP indicates he might have been victim to some bad luck. Despite this, his projections aren't particularly favorable, with an average of 2.8 earned runs allowed and just 3.8 strikeouts per game.

The Cardinals' offense ranks 18th in MLB, with average metrics in batting average and stolen bases, but they struggle with power, ranking 24th in home runs. Nolan Gorman has been the Cardinals' standout hitter over the last week, boasting a .455 batting average and a 1.115 OPS. The Cubs' offense is even less impressive, ranking 22nd overall. However, Michael Busch has been a bright spot recently, hitting .440 with a 1.321 OPS over the last week.

The Cardinals hold a significant advantage in the bullpen, ranking 5th best in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, the Cubs' bullpen is 12th, which is average. Given these factors, the Cardinals appear to have the upper hand in this series opener, especially with Gray's strong pitching and the Cubs' offensive struggles.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Kyle Hendricks's 87.2-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 0th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Michael Busch has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 93.9-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (42.2% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Generating 17.4 outs per outing this year on average, Sonny Gray places him the 84th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

As it relates to his home runs, Alec Burleson has had positive variance on his side this year. His 27.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.6.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

As a team, St. Louis Cardinals hitters have done well in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking 3rd-best in MLB.

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 72 games (+8.10 Units / 10% ROI)
• Nolan Gorman has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 33 games (+15.45 Units / 47% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 3.75 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.35

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