Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners Pick For 4/14/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners Overview

• Date: April 14, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
• Run Line: Cubs 1.5 -180, Mariners -1.5 155
• Money Line: Cubs 120, Mariners -140
• Total (Over/Under):8 -105

Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 44%
• Seattle Mariners - 56%

Projected Win %:

• Chicago Cubs - 39.25%
• Seattle Mariners - 60.75%

Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners Game Preview & Prediction

In an Interleague matchup on April 14, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will face off against the Chicago Cubs at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, currently having a bad season with a record of 6-8, will play as the home team. On the other hand, the Cubs are having an above-average season with a record of 7-6 and will be the away team.

The Mariners are projected to start right-handed pitcher Luis Castillo, who has had a rough start to the season with a win/loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 6.89. However, his 3.16 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Castillo is expected to pitch an average of 6.0 innings and strike out 7.0 batters per game.

Opposing Castillo will be right-handed pitcher Javier Assad of the Cubs. Assad has started two games this season, with a win/loss record of 1-0 and an impressive ERA of 1.64. However, his 3.58 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse in the future. Assad is projected to pitch an average of 5.1 innings and strike out 4.6 batters per game.

The Mariners offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 27th best in MLB. Their team batting average ranks 24th, while their team home runs and stolen bases rank 13th and 18th, respectively. In contrast, the Cubs offense has been more productive, ranking as the 10th best in MLB. Their team batting average ranks 9th, while their team home runs and stolen bases rank 12th and 6th, respectively.

In terms of the bullpen, the Mariners rank 24th in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Cubs rank 14th. This suggests that the Cubs may have a slight advantage in the late innings.

Based on the current odds, the Mariners are the betting favorite with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%. The Cubs are the underdogs with a moneyline of +115 and an implied win probability of 44%.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup. While the Mariners have struggled this season, Castillo's potential for improvement and their home-field advantage could give them an edge. However, the Cubs' more productive offense and stronger bullpen may level the playing field. It will be a game to watch as both teams look to secure a victory.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Javier Assad is expected to record an average of 15.3 outs in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Cody Bellinger is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Seattle (#3-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Luis Castillo in the 84th percentile among all starters in Major League Baseball.

Mitch Garver is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Cubs vs Mariners Prediction: Cubs 3.56 - Mariners 4.23

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