Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants Best Bet – 6/25/2024

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Details

• Date: June 25, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs
  • Undecided - Giants

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants and the Chicago Cubs face off at Oracle Park on June 25, 2024, in what promises to be a closely contested National League matchup. Both teams enter the game with identical 37-42 records, reflecting below-average seasons thus far. The Giants, who are the home team, will look to bounce back after losing the first game of the series.

On the mound, the Giants have yet to decide on a starting pitcher, with their choice likely to impact the outcome of this game one way or the other. The Cubs will go with with Kyle Hendricks, a right-hander, who has had a rough year with a 1-4 record and a 7.46 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.07 indicates that he too has been unlucky and might be due for better performances.

Offensively, the Giants rank 15th in MLB, making them an average unit. They are 13th in team batting average and 18th in home runs, but they notably lag in stolen bases, ranking last in the league. On the other hand, the Cubs' offense ranks 18th overall. While they struggle with batting average (25th) and home runs (22nd), they are proficient in stealing bases, ranking 8th.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Giants have a slight edge with a 52% projected win probability, compared to their implied win probability of 48% based on current betting markets. This suggests some value in backing San Francisco, especially considering their stronger bullpen.

Nick Ahmed has been a bright spot for the Giants over the last week, hitting .286 with a 1.114 OPS and a home run in four games. Meanwhile, Dansby Swanson has been on a tear for the Cubs, batting .333 with two homers and seven RBIs in his last six games.

With both teams looking to gain some momentum, this game could hinge on which starting pitcher can better capitalize on their potential for improvement. Expect a competitive battle at Oracle Park.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Hendricks to throw 82 pitches in this matchup (5th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Matos in the 86th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Heliot Ramos has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 54 games (+6.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 67 games (+16.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+11.45 Units / 25% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.44 vs San Francisco Giants 4.42

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