Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bet – 8/28/2024

• Date: August 28, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on August 28, 2024, both teams find themselves in the middle of a competitive stretch, albeit with different trajectories. The Pirates, currently sitting at 62-70, are experiencing a below-average season, while the Cubs hold a slightly better record at 67-66, marking them as having an average season. This matchup is significant as it marks the third game in their series, and the Pirates will be eager to secure a win after falling to the Cubs in yesterday's game.

The Pirates will send their ace, Paul Skenes, to the mound. Skenes has been phenomenal this season, boasting a remarkable Win/Loss record of 8-2 and an outstanding ERA of 2.16, ranking him as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. He projects to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, allowing just 2.1 earned runs and striking out 6.1 batters. His low walk rate of 6.3 BB% will be crucial against a patient Cubs lineup that ranks 5th in walks this season.

On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Kyle Hendricks, who has struggled this year with a Win/Loss record of 3-10 and a troubling ERA of 6.33. Hendricks's 4.44 xFIP suggests he could improve, but he faces a tough matchup against the Pirates' high-strikeout offense, which ranks 5th in strikeouts in MLB.

The projections favor the Pirates, suggesting they will score around 4.97 runs, while the Cubs are projected for 4.20 runs. With a strong performance expected from Skenes, the Pirates' chances look promising, especially as they aim to capitalize on home-field advantage at PNC Park.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Kyle Hendricks's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (50.9% vs. 44.7% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball batters like Christian Bethancourt are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Paul Skenes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.4% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Over his last 3 outings, Paul Skenes has seen a sizeable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2259 rpm over the entire season to 2196 rpm in recent games.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Bryan De La Cruz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 103 games (+10.40 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 123 games (+6.75 Units / 5% ROI)
• Yasmani Grandal has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games (+24.90 Units / 208% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.3 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 5.22

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