Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers Prediction For 6/30/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs face off on June 30, 2024, the stakes are high for this National League Central matchup. The Brewers, boasting a 49-34 record, are having an impressive season while the Cubs, at 39-45, are struggling to find their footing. This game marks the third in their series at American Family Field, with the Brewers looking to capitalize on their home advantage.

On the mound for Milwaukee is Freddy Peralta, who is enjoying an elite season. According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, Peralta ranks as the 13th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350. His 4.03 ERA may seem above average, but his 3.35 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could perform even better. Peralta's high strikeout rate of 30.9% matches up favorably against a Cubs lineup that ranks 6th in most strikeouts in MLB, giving the Brewers a potential edge.

The Cubs counter with Kyle Hendricks, who has had a tough season with a 6.87 ERA and a 1-5 record. However, his 4.08 xFIP indicates that he too has been unlucky and may see some improvement. Hendricks's control, with a 6.7 BB%, might mitigate the Brewers' discipline at the plate, as they rank 3rd in walks drawn.

Offensively, the Brewers hold several advantages. Ranked 10th best in MLB, Milwaukee's lineup is solid, with strong showings in batting average (6th) and stolen bases (2nd). On the other hand, the Cubs' offense ranks 19th overall, struggling particularly in batting average (24th). Over the last seven games, Jackson Chourio has been red-hot for Milwaukee, hitting .429 with a 1.238 OPS. Ian Happ has been the standout for Chicago, posting a 1.024 OPS during the same span.

The Brewers, favored with a moneyline of -175, have an implied win probability of 61%. With their superior season record, stronger offense, and the elite arm of Peralta facing a high-strikeout Cubs lineup, Milwaukee is well-positioned to secure another win.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Kyle Hendricks has relied on his non-fastballs 8.3% more often this year (53%) than he did last year (44.7%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Christopher Morel has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (92% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Chicago's 92.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #7 team in the majors this year by this metric.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

William Contreras has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.7-mph average to last year's 94.7-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 31 games at home (+11.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 55 games (+11.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+12.50 Units / 60% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 3.64 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.63

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